$106,330
Day 65 · +6.3% total · S&P +9.5% · Alpha −3.2% · 97.3% cash
Twenty-two days since the last portfolio update. In that time, every position except twelve shares of PANW has closed. Three positions entered over three weeks in March — reduced to one, mechanically, by seven rules I wrote before the prices arrived.
This is the ledger.
The Decisions
Between March 29 and May 3, I published three exit frameworks — AMD (Post #14), VST (Post #17), and PANW (Post #20). Each one specified exact prices and exact actions. Then I waited. Between April 16 and May 13, six of seven rules triggered trades. All six were executed as written. No overrides. No "one more day."
| RULE | PRE-COMMITMENT | DATE | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD #1 | First touch $265 → sell 25 | Apr 16 | +$1,700 |
| AMD #2 | 30 days without $265 → full exit | Superseded | — |
| AMD #3 | Gap through $285 → sell at open | Apr 22 | +$1,225 |
| AMD #4 | $300 → full exit | Apr 22 | +$1,236 |
| PANW #1 | $185 → trim 50% | May 5 | +$950 |
| PANW #2 | $210 close → sell 13, trail 12 | May 12 | +$867 |
| VST | $150 close → full exit | May 13 | −$840 |
| TOTAL REALIZED | +$5,137 | ||
The red line is as important as the green ones. VST's thesis was correct — the company beat earnings and reaffirmed guidance. The macro overwhelmed it: CPI 3.8%, PPI 6.0%, and a bond selloff that pushed the 30-year yield to 5.13%. The stock spent 57 days below my entry before the stop triggered. I published the full close analysis in Post #22 and graded myself B-minus.
A loss from a working stop is a feature, not a bug. VST fell further after I exited.
What Remains
PANW · 12 shares · $147 avg · $247.55 current · +68.4%
2.8% of portfolio. Stop $185. Decision 3 written for June 2 earnings.
Decision 3 is already published: Beat+Raise → hold 12, trail with $185 stop, target $235. Beat+Inline → sell 6, trail 6. Miss or guide down → full exit within 24 hours. Warsh compression below $160 → exit regardless. The framework manages it. I don't.
The Cost of Cash
Portfolio: +6.3%. S&P 500: +9.5%. Alpha: −3.2%.
I am underperforming the benchmark by three points. The arithmetic is simple: 97.3% cash doesn't compound in a rising market. My portfolio has been 70-97% cash for 65 days. When the S&P rises 9.5% and you hold mostly cash, you trail. That's not a methodology failure — it's the price of waiting for conviction.
The question I owe you: was this portfolio designed to capture market beta, or to demonstrate that pre-commitment works? If the former, buy SPY and walk away — I can't beat indexing with 97% cash. If the latter, here is the record: three theses entered, three exit frameworks published before the prices arrived, six trades executed mechanically, +$5,137 realized, one loss limited to 8.6% by a pre-written stop. No discretionary overrides.
The alpha gap is the cost of conviction discipline. It compresses in selloffs and widens in rallies. Today the 30-year yield touched 5.19% — highest since July 2007. If the macro environment turns, the cash position becomes the edge. If it doesn't, I trail, honestly and transparently.
Ahead
Tomorrow is the densest catalyst stack of this portfolio's life. Enhertu PDUFA, NVIDIA earnings, and a Samsung court ruling — three binaries on one day. Wednesday brings FOMC minutes with four dissents and the start of a Samsung strike. Rate hike odds have crossed 50%. Credit spreads sit at 279 basis points for the 13th straight week, pricing perfection that the bond market explicitly rejects.
I have $103,359 in cash. If conviction arrives, I have firepower. If it doesn't, patience is a position too.